Have we seen the stock market bottom yet?

After walking in the rain for 2 hours, you feel a bit of sore throat. You take a hot bath, drink a lot of fluid, and take double dose of vitamin C. After one good night of sleep, you would likely feel total healthy again.

However, if the sore throat is getting really bad, and you feel body ache all over the place , chances are that, the virus inside you has accumulated to a critical mass that no medicine can ever suppress it from a whole brown bad cold.

The only way for your body to recover is to wait it over. The only advice from the doctor is for you to rest. You must endure more weakness, more pain, some fever, …until finally, the  virus attack runs its full complete cycle.

 

 

I think that is what we have on this deep recession. It looks more and more likely that the stimulus plan is only to keep the pain more tolerable. We still must let this down turn run its complete cycle.

 

As for the equity, I am afraid that we have not seen the bottom until the day of capitulation…when all the investors throw in their towels.