I still remember that night in 2004. I was in a seminar in Palo Alto, California. The topic of discussion was “the next big thing”. Silicon Valley just climbed out of the recession. Venture capitalists, investment bankers, and entrepreneurs were wondering about the new driving force that would fuel the next boom of Silicon Valley.
Somehow, all panel members were kind of lost that night. The confidence level was low. The general mood was pessimistic. Most of them just lost a huge chunk of their wealth from the bust of high tech bubble. What was the “next big thing”? The general consensus from the panel was “Bio-technology”. ( I guess that was the only thing that can be come up with. It was kind of giving an answer for the sake of answering a question.)
Google was scheduled to go IPO around that time. I remember I jokingly made my comment that “The next big thing is here already, which is google. “ Google went IPO with the price of $85. As of today, Google sells for $554. I regret that I did not take it seriously enough about my own comment.
Now those 3 years of time has passed. If there is anything that can be qualified as the “next big thing”, it should be “China, India, and globalization”.
How about “bio-tech”, the consensus of that time? I think it is taking a back seat now as China and India lead the show. This is reflected in the stock price action of Genentech ( DNA). See attached weekly chart of DNA.
I think it is a pattern of accumulation for the long term.
He is a good friend that speaks well of us behind our backs.
Posted by: moncler jacket | November 30, 2011 at 06:42 PM